Data Science · Evidence, Trends & Claims

Detroit runs on data: weather, energy, water, and roads.

Utilities forecast demand from the weather, public-works crews plan around freeze–thaw cycles, and planners track water levels for decades. This unit teaches students to analyze real Detroit datasets: graph them, fit lines, count events, and judge what the evidence does and does not show.

NGSS Standards Addressed High School

  • SEP 4 Analyzing and interpreting data: analyze data using computational models and tools to make valid and reliable scientific claims.
  • SEP 5 Using mathematics and computational thinking: create and use computational representations of phenomena and solutions.
  • HS-ESS3-5 Analyze geoscience data and results from climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of climate change and its regional impacts.
  • HSS-ID.B.6 Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot and describe how the variables are related (Common Core Math).

NGSS Standards Addressed Middle School

  • SEP 4 Analyzing and interpreting data: construct, analyze, and interpret graphical displays of data to identify linear and nonlinear relationships.
  • MS-LS2-1 Analyze and interpret data to provide evidence for the effects of resource availability on organisms and populations of organisms in an ecosystem.
  • MS-ESS3-5 Ask questions to clarify evidence of the factors that have caused the rise in global temperatures over the past century.
  • 8.SP.A.1–2 Construct and interpret scatter plots and informally fit a straight line (Common Core Math).
Warm-Up

Bell-Ringers

Project one at the start of class. Each has a click-to-reveal discussion note. Try Project Mode for full-screen slides. More formats (Notice and Wonder, CER, Fact or Fiction, and more) are in the Bell-Ringer Bank.

Energy

A household's gas use is highest in winter and its electricity use climbs in summer. Sketch what scatter plots of monthly gas use and monthly electricity use versus average temperature would look like. Would one straight line fit both?

Discussion notes
Gas use falls steadily as temperature rises, roughly a line sloping downward that flattens in warm months. Electricity is roughly flat in cool months and climbs in hot months when air conditioning runs. One straight line fits gas reasonably well but not electricity, so the two need different models.
Transportation

Detroit's potholes spike each late winter. Which daily weather measurements would you use to predict pothole risk, and why?

Discussion notes
Daily minimum and maximum temperature, to find freeze–thaw days (low below 0°C and high above 0°C). Water seeps into pavement cracks, freezes and expands, then thaws, leaving gaps that traffic breaks apart. Precipitation and snowfall add moisture.
Water

A graph shows Detroit River water levels from 1970 to 2024. Why is a moving average better than single yearly points for judging a long-term trend, and what is the danger of choosing the start and end years?

Discussion notes
A moving average smooths year-to-year noise so longer swings stand out. Choosing convenient start and end years (cherry-picking) can create or hide a trend; looking at the full record avoids that.
Transportation

Most students in a class live 1–2 miles from school, but one lives 20 miles away. Would the mean or the median better describe a typical distance, and why?

Discussion notes
The median. One very large value pulls the mean up, but the median stays near the typical distance.
Weather

If you graphed Detroit's average temperature for each month of the year, what shape would the graph have, and why?

Discussion notes
A smooth hill: it rises from winter to a peak in July and falls again. The pattern repeats every year because of the seasons.
Health

Sales of lemonade at Eastern Market stands and visits for heat illness both rise on hot days. Does lemonade cause heat illness?

Discussion notes
No. Hot weather causes both to rise. Two things changing together is a correlation, not proof that one causes the other.
Hands-On

Labs

Does Temperature Predict Energy Use?

45 minPairs or individualsScatter plots and lines of best fit

Students graph a household's modeled gas and electricity use against Detroit's real 2024 monthly temperatures, fit lines, interpret slope and correlation, and test predictions.

Pothole Season: Counting Freeze–Thaw Days

45 minIndividuals or pairsThresholds and trends

Students use ten years of real Detroit daily temperatures to define and count freeze–thaw days, graph nine winters, and judge whether the data show a trend.

Great Lakes Water Level Data Dive

40 minPairsTime series and moving averages (also in Environmental Science)

Students graph 55 years of real Detroit River water levels from NOAA and compute a moving average.

Explore

Simulations

Original on The Lab

Fit the Line

Choose a Detroit dataset, drag a line to fit it by eye, and compare your fit and error with the best-fit line.

Launch Simulation →

Least-Squares Regression

PhET Interactive Simulations — drag data points and see how the best-fit line and correlation respond.

Open Simulation →

Plinko Probability

PhET Interactive Simulations — see how random outcomes build a distribution as the sample grows.

Open Simulation →

Open-Meteo Historical Weather

The free weather archive behind the Detroit temperature dataset used in this unit.

Open Tool →

Data Driven Detroit

Detroit nonprofit that publishes neighborhood-level data on housing, population, and services.

Open Tool →
Go Further

Project Ideas

Model building

Freeze–Thaw Pothole Forecast Rule

Build a simple rule that predicts high-risk weeks from daily temperatures, test it on a winter you held out, and report how well it works.

Visualization

Energy Bill Explainer

Design a one-page visual that shows homeowners how weather drives gas and electricity use and what they can do about it.

Critique

Graph Critic

Find a published chart that uses a truncated axis or cherry-picked years and redraw it honestly using the full Detroit River water-level record.

Poster project

Detroit Weather Almanac

Use the daily weather dataset to make a poster of average and record temperatures by month and describe the yearly pattern.

Survey

How Do We Get to School?

Survey classmates about how they travel to school, graph the results, and report the mean, median, and mode of travel times.

Scavenger hunt

Misleading Graph Hunt

Find graphs in news or ads that could mislead and explain how to redraw each one fairly.

Assess

Show What You Know: Exit Ticket

Three quick questions to close the lesson. Answers are hidden until you click. Use Project Mode to display them full-screen.

Question 1

A scatter plot of monthly electricity use versus average temperature slopes upward above about 16°C. What can you conclude, and what can't you conclude, from the correlation?

Answer
You can conclude the two variables move together in that range, consistent with air-conditioning demand. You cannot conclude that temperature alone causes the change without controlling for other factors.
Question 2

Why is counting days with a minimum below 0°C and a maximum above 0°C a sensible measure of pothole risk?

Answer
Water seeps into pavement cracks, freezes and expands, then thaws and leaves voids. Each freeze–thaw cycle weakens pavement, so more such days means more damage.
Question 3

Why is a 5-year moving average useful for a water-level graph, and what is one risk of cherry-picking start and end years?

Answer
It smooths short-term swings so longer-term patterns are visible. Choosing favorable start and end years can make a graph show a trend that disappears with the full record.
Question 1

Most students in a class live 1–2 miles from school, but one lives 20 miles away. Would the mean or the median better describe a typical distance?

Answer
The median. The one very large value pulls the mean upward, while the median stays near the typical value.
Question 2

Describe the shape of a graph of Detroit's average monthly temperature across a year and explain why it looks that way.

Answer
It rises from winter to a peak in July and falls again, forming a smooth hill shape. The seasons repeat each year, so the pattern is cyclical.
Question 3

Lemonade sales and heat-illness visits both rise on hot days. Does lemonade cause heat illness?

Answer
No. A third factor, hot weather, causes both to rise. Two things changing together is correlation, not proof of causation.

View project rubrics →

Why Does This Matter?

Data Science, built on Detroit

Energy

DTE Energy forecasts demand from temperature data every day, and household bills follow the same weather-driven pattern students analyze here.

Transportation

Public works crews, road commissions, and transit planners use weather and ridership data to schedule repairs and routes across Detroit.

Water

Decades of Great Lakes water-level records guide shoreline construction and flood planning, and show why long data records matter.

Technology

Detroit-area employers such as automakers, energy utilities, hospitals, and Data Driven Detroit hire analysts who turn large datasets into decisions.

Careers

Who works on this in Detroit?

Real roles and organizations in and around the city where this science is part of the job.

Data analyst / data scientist

DTE Energy, Rocket Companies, Henry Ford Health

Cleans and analyzes large datasets to forecast demand, spot trends, and support decisions.

Automotive data scientist

GM, Ford, Stellantis

Uses sensor and testing data to improve vehicle safety, battery performance, and driver-assistance systems.

Civic data analyst

Data Driven Detroit, City of Detroit

Turns public data about housing, population, and services into maps and reports for neighborhoods.

Sports analytics analyst

Professional team front offices

Builds statistical models of player performance, strategy, and injury risk.

Public health data analyst

Detroit Health Department, hospital systems

Tracks disease and exposure data to find patterns and target prevention.